2019 Parliament
The chart (template credit: Flourish) below shows the real 2019 General Election results in both the current system ("FPTP") and multiple proportional systems.
Proportionality scores based on the Gallagher Index: FPTP=11.80; DH-County=5.95; DH-Regional=1.80.
An election can be considered fully proportional with scores under 5.
DH-County results are based on the method outlines on the homepage. We also discuss this method in the first video on the topic over on the Youtube Channel! This is similar to systems used in Spain, Portugal, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Poland, Brazil, Argentina, Turkey and many many more.
DH-Regional is a similar D'Hondt based method, but the constituencies are now the 12 large regions used formerly in EU elections. These constituencies range from 18 (Northern Ireland) to 91 (South East England) seats.
MMP stands for mixed-member proportional. We half the amount of seats, by combining two or three neighbouring constituencies and the largest constituencies like the Isle of Wight remaining as one. Then for each of the 12 UK regions, the other half of the seats are allocated proportionally taking into account the number of constituency seats in a given region. This is the system used in Scotland and Germany for their parliaments. This system would require two separate ballot papers.
AV stands for the alternative vote, or the instant runoff method. Voters choose their top two preferences. If, in the first round, a candidate doesn't gain over 50% of the vote, second choice votes are counted. This is the system used in Australia. Data coming soon!
Maps
D'Hondt County-based:
Basemap source, MapChart EU NUTS3 map
This election was still overshadowed by the ongoing Brexit negotiations, which had been dragging on for two years.
Analysis in detail coming soon!
D'Hondt Region-based:
Basemap source, Ordnance Survey
Analysis in detail coming soon!
MMP maps and analysis coming soon!
Government formation
The electoral arithmetic in this situation has limited outcomes which result in a strong governing majority. As the four elected Sinn Féin members would not take their seats, the magic number in this scenario is 324 for a bare majority.
The Conservatives are the largest party and have 'first dibs' on forming a goverment. On their own, the Conservatives' 319 seats are not enough for a majority.
Perhaps they could team up with their old confidence-and-supply partners and, to some maybe, close allies the Brexit Party. This would give a government 329 seats and a majority of nine.
On the other side, there might be the chance to form a 'Progressive Alliance'. Including all parties considered left-leaning or liberal, the total would be just 315 seats against an opposition of 331.
The strongest, somewhat feasible coalition could be a repeat Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition like the one between 1997 and 2015. This would equal 365 seats (interestingly, the same amount the Conservatives win with FPTP!), but after events since the referendum this may not be so likely.
